Sagan Tosu 5-2 Kawasaki Frontale — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 15 May 2024

📅15/05/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.46
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
41%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.18
Over 2.5
52%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.6
No
49%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.36
2-3 Goals
37%
1.88
4-5 Goals
25%
2.96
6+ Goals
11%
8.83
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.36 — our 27% vs market 18.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
5.57
1/2
8%
22.3
1/X
6%
13.2
X/1
9%
8.19
X/2
12%
4.59
X/X
13%
5.31
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
22%
2.46
2/X
8%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
26%
+6.0pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.7pp
41%
Away Win
49%
-7.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
42%
+6.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
58%
-6.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.9pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Kawasaki Frontale EU Bookmakers 53%
+6% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -10%
1.08/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/0.88
+10% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +9%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
339 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 79%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.4
18.0 Crosses 14.3
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sagan Tosu
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Kawasaki Frontale
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.72 xG 1.69
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
389 Passes 481
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 37
12 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 0
03.12.2023 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 0-1 HT 0-0 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JAP
07.05.2023 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 1-0 HT 0-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
31.08.2022 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 4-0 HT 1-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
21.05.2022 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 0-0 HT 0-0 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JAP
07.11.2021 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 3-1 HT 3-0 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JAP
07.04.2021 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 1-0 HT 0-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sagan Tosu
5-2
AWAY Kawasaki Frontale
2.75 xG 2.50
40% Ball Possession 60%
15 Total Shots 19
8 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 7
312 Passes 514
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 46
12 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Sagan Tosu vs Kawasaki Frontale
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sagan Tosu cruised past Kawasaki Frontale 5-2. Half-time: 3-2. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Kawasaki Frontale at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Sagan Tosu had 40% of the ball to Kawasaki Frontale's 60%, shots finished 15-19, expected goals 2.75 to 2.50.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kawasaki Frontale led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Sagan Tosu and 1.33 for Kawasaki Frontale.

What was the final score of Sagan Tosu vs Kawasaki Frontale?

Sagan Tosu 5-2 Kawasaki Frontale in the Japan - J1 League on 15/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sagan Tosu vs Kawasaki Frontale?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kawasaki Frontale win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Sagan Tosu 32%, draw 27%, Kawasaki Frontale 41%. The final score 5-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Kawasaki Frontale) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Kawasaki Frontale) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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