Vissel Kobe 2-1 Cerezo Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 13 Sep 2024

📅13/09/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.72
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.86
Over 2.5
52%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.82
No
47%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.28
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
23%
3.59
6+ Goals
12%
14.4
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.59 — our 23% vs market 22.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.2
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.45
X/1 EV+ ✗
26%
3.98
X/2
11%
9.65
X/X
9%
4.84
2/1
8%
24.45
2/2
8%
7.61
2/X
10%
15.3
Value flag · X/1 at 3.98 — our 26% vs market 19.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
54%
-4.4pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.0pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+3.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
50%
-2.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
50%
+2.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.1pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vissel Kobe EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 23%
+2% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -8%
1.69/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.51
+7% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +5%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
388 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 75%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
21.4 Crosses 17.4
1.3 Yellow Cards 0.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vissel Kobe
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.34 xG 1.18
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
365 Passes 311
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
24 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
11.05.2024 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-4 HT 0-2 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe JAP
23.09.2023 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe 1-0 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
10.06.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-1 HT 0-0 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe JAP
06.08.2022 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 3-0 HT 2-0 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe JAP
10.04.2022 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe 0-1 HT 0-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
17.07.2021 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-1 HT 0-1 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vissel Kobe
2-1
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
1.01 xG 0.62
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 6
366 Passes 296
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 8
14 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Vissel Kobe vs Cerezo Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vissel Kobe squeezed past Cerezo Osaka 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Vissel Kobe as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Vissel Kobe had 54% of the ball to Cerezo Osaka's 46%, shots finished 10-13, expected goals 1.01 to 0.62.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cerezo Osaka led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Vissel Kobe and 1.33 for Cerezo Osaka.

What was the final score of Vissel Kobe vs Cerezo Osaka?

Vissel Kobe 2-1 Cerezo Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 13/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vissel Kobe vs Cerezo Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vissel Kobe win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Vissel Kobe 50%, draw 26%, Cerezo Osaka 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vissel Kobe), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vissel Kobe) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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