Caldas 1-2 Sporting CP II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 13 Sep 2024

📅13/09/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
31%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.71
Over 2.5
43%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.82
No
57%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+0.5pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.2pp
31%
Away Win
31%
+0.7pp
57%
Under 2.5
55%
+2.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
45%
-2.9pp
43%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.4pp
57%
BTTS No
49%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caldas EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting CP II EU Bookmakers 34%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
0.72/0.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.46/1.17
-43% / +89% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -58% / +11%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
364 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caldas
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Sporting CP II
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
30.03.2024 Caldas Caldas 1-0 HT 0-0 Sporting CP II Sporting CP II POR3
09.03.2024 Sporting CP II Sporting CP II 3-0 HT 3-0 Caldas Caldas POR3
14.01.2024 Caldas Caldas 1-0 HT 1-0 Sporting CP II Sporting CP II POR3
30.09.2023 Sporting CP II Sporting CP II 1-3 HT 0-1 Caldas Caldas POR3
11.03.2023 Sporting CP II Sporting CP II 3-2 HT 1-1 Caldas Caldas POR3
03.12.2022 Caldas Caldas 0-2 HT 0-1 Sporting CP II Sporting CP II POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Caldas
1-2
AWAY Sporting CP II
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Caldas vs Sporting CP II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting CP II edged past Caldas 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Caldas at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Caldas had 45% of the ball to Sporting CP II's 55%, shots finished 13-16.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Caldas and 1.50 for Sporting CP II.

What was the final score of Caldas vs Sporting CP II?

Caldas 1-2 Sporting CP II in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 13/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caldas vs Sporting CP II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Caldas 43%, draw 26%, Sporting CP II 31%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Caldas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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