Caldas 1-0 Sporting CP II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 30 Mar 2024

📅30/03/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.19
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.68
Over 2.5
43%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
-0.5pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.6pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.0pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.2pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caldas EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting CP II EU Bookmakers 33%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
0.61/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.61/0.90
-51% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -46% / +44%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
356 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caldas
2W-0D-3L
AWAY Sporting CP II
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.80
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
09.03.2024 Sporting CP II Sporting CP II 3-0 HT 3-0 Caldas Caldas POR3
14.01.2024 Caldas Caldas 1-0 HT 1-0 Sporting CP II Sporting CP II POR3
30.09.2023 Sporting CP II Sporting CP II 1-3 HT 0-1 Caldas Caldas POR3
11.03.2023 Sporting CP II Sporting CP II 3-2 HT 1-1 Caldas Caldas POR3
03.12.2022 Caldas Caldas 0-2 HT 0-1 Sporting CP II Sporting CP II POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Caldas
1-0
AWAY Sporting CP II
36% Ball Possession 64%
9 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Caldas vs Sporting CP II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caldas nicked a narrow win over Sporting CP II 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Caldas as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Caldas had 36% of the ball to Sporting CP II's 64%, shots finished 9-14.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Sporting CP II led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Caldas and 1.80 for Sporting CP II.

What was the final score of Caldas vs Sporting CP II?

Caldas 1-0 Sporting CP II in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caldas vs Sporting CP II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Caldas 42%, draw 27%, Sporting CP II 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Caldas), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Caldas) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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