Sanjoanense 4-2 Fafe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 30 Mar 2024

📅30/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.53
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
42%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.64
Over 2.5
44%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
10%
X/2
17%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
19%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
36%
-4.6pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.3pp
42%
Away Win
37%
+5.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
57%
-1.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
43%
+1.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.2pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sanjoanense EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Fafe EU Bookmakers 40%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
1.39/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.40
+12% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -16%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
285 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sanjoanense
2W-3D-0L
AWAY Fafe
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 0.60
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.03.2024 Fafe Fafe 0-2 HT 0-0 Sanjoanense Sanjoanense POR3
10.12.2023 Fafe Fafe 1-1 HT 1-0 Sanjoanense Sanjoanense POR3
27.08.2023 Sanjoanense Sanjoanense 1-1 HT 0-1 Fafe Fafe POR3
04.03.2023 Sanjoanense Sanjoanense 4-0 HT 2-0 Fafe Fafe POR3
26.11.2022 Fafe Fafe 1-1 HT 0-0 Sanjoanense Sanjoanense POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sanjoanense
4-2
AWAY Fafe
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
POST-MATCH Sanjoanense vs Fafe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sanjoanense saw off Fafe 4-2. Half-time: 1-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Fafe at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sanjoanense had 40% of the ball to Fafe's 60%, shots finished 10-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Sanjoanense had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Sanjoanense and 0.60 for Fafe.

What was the final score of Sanjoanense vs Fafe?

Sanjoanense 4-2 Fafe in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sanjoanense vs Fafe?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fafe win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Sanjoanense 31%, draw 27%, Fafe 42%. The final score 4-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fafe) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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