Chesterfield 1-1 Milton Keynes Dons — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 13 Sep 2025

📅13/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.18
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
30%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.86
Over 2.5
52%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.7
No
45%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.09
2-3 Goals
37%
1.72
4-5 Goals
24%
3.36
6+ Goals
12%
13.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
3.14
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
7%
12.9
X/1
10%
5.03
X/2
13%
6.36
X/X
11%
4.63
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
25.5
2/2
12%
4.5
2/X
6%
13.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.5 — our 8% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
42%
+2.6pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.1pp
30%
Away Win
31%
-0.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
50%
-2.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
50%
+2.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
55%
+0.1pp
45%
BTTS No
45%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chesterfield EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons EU Bookmakers 34%
-6% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -7%
1.17/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.10
+14% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -10%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
226 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 385 · 77%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
22.1 Crosses 17.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chesterfield
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.96 xG 1.98
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
390 Passes 436
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 24
12 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 2
01.01.2025 Chesterfield Chesterfield 1-2 HT 0-2 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
03.12.2024 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 3-0 HT 2-0 Chesterfield Chesterfield İN2
02.01.2017 Chesterfield Chesterfield 0-0 HT 0-0 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN1
22.11.2016 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 2-3 HT 0-1 Chesterfield Chesterfield İN1
03.03.2015 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 1-2 HT 1-0 Chesterfield Chesterfield İN1
02.01.2015 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 0-1 HT 0-1 Chesterfield Chesterfield FAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chesterfield
1-1
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons
0.87 xG 0.44
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 4
4 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 4
344 Passes 214
81% Pass Accuracy 66%
20 Box Touches 17
30 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Chesterfield vs Milton Keynes Dons
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chesterfield and Milton Keynes Dons shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Chesterfield at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Chesterfield had 57% of the ball to Milton Keynes Dons's 43%, shots finished 12-4, expected goals 0.87 to 0.44.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chesterfield had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Chesterfield and 1.33 for Milton Keynes Dons.

What was the final score of Chesterfield vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Chesterfield 1-1 Milton Keynes Dons in the England - 2nd Division on 13/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chesterfield vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chesterfield win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Chesterfield 45%, draw 25%, Milton Keynes Dons 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Chesterfield), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Chesterfield) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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