Chesterfield 1-2 Milton Keynes Dons — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 1 Jan 2025

Chesterfield
1-2 HT 0-2
Milton Keynes Dons
📅01/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Chesterfield vs Milton Keynes Dons Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.25
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
41%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.07
Over 2.5
48%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.56
No
51%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.77
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
2.97
6+ Goals
11%
9.54
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.77 — our 28% vs market 20.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.31
1/2
8%
28.5
1/X
6%
12.6
X/1
15%
5.42
X/2
17%
6.25
X/X
12%
5.01
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
16%
4.04
2/X
8%
12.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
41%
-7.4pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.4pp
41%
Away Win
33%
+7.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
60%
-11.1pp
51%
BTTS No
40%
+11.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Chesterfield v Milton Keynes Dons — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chesterfield EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons EU Bookmakers 37%
-2% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -22%
1.06/1.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.24
+18% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -29%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
302 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 74%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
13.6 Crosses 16.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.2

Chesterfield vs Milton Keynes Dons Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chesterfield
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.80 xG 2.79
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
425 Passes 621
87% Pass Accuracy 91%
15 Box Touches 30
6 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
03.12.2024 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 3-0 HT 2-0 Chesterfield Chesterfield İN2
02.01.2017 Chesterfield Chesterfield 0-0 HT 0-0 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN1
22.11.2016 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 2-3 HT 0-1 Chesterfield Chesterfield İN1
03.03.2015 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 1-2 HT 1-0 Chesterfield Chesterfield İN1
02.01.2015 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 0-1 HT 0-1 Chesterfield Chesterfield FAK
19.08.2014 Chesterfield Chesterfield 0-1 HT 0-0 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN1

Chesterfield 1-2 Milton Keynes Dons — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chesterfield
1-2
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons
1.11 xG 1.17
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
355 Passes 250
80% Pass Accuracy 71%
34 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Chesterfield vs Milton Keynes Dons
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milton Keynes Dons nicked a narrow win over Chesterfield 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As we said in the preview, our model had Milton Keynes Dons as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Chesterfield had 56% of the ball to Milton Keynes Dons's 44%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 1.11 to 1.17.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chesterfield had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Chesterfield and 1.17 for Milton Keynes Dons.

What was the final score of Chesterfield vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Chesterfield 1-2 Milton Keynes Dons in the England - 2nd Division on 01/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chesterfield vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Before kick-off our model rated an Milton Keynes Dons win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Chesterfield 33%, draw 26%, Milton Keynes Dons 41%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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