Crewe Alexandra 3-2 Carlisle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 1 Jan 2025

📅01/01/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.9
Draw
31%
3.28
Away
28%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.62
Over 2.5
38%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.03
No
58%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.4
2-3 Goals
40%
1.71
4-5 Goals
17%
4.42
6+ Goals
8%
24.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.4 — our 35% vs market 33.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.77
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.5
X/1
19%
4.09
X/2
11%
7.26
X/X
15%
4.23
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
12%
6.12
2/X
10%
16.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
48%
-7.1pp
30%
Draw
27%
+3.8pp
28%
Away Win
25%
+3.4pp
62%
Under 2.5
58%
+4.4pp
38%
Over 2.5
42%
-4.4pp
42%
BTTS Yes
45%
-2.9pp
58%
BTTS No
55%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crewe Alexandra EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 29%
+4% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -1%
1.25/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.17
-4% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +11%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
276 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 239 · 66%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
22.0 Crosses 16.7
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crewe Alexandra
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Carlisle United
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.84 xG 0.79
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
350 Passes 264
76% Pass Accuracy 71%
14 Box Touches 14
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
30.11.2024 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-1 HT 1-0 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN2
29.12.2022 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 0-3 HT 0-1 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
01.10.2022 Carlisle United Carlisle United 0-0 HT 0-0 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN2
01.01.2020 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 4-1 HT 4-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
12.10.2019 Carlisle United Carlisle United 2-4 HT 0-2 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN2
12.02.2019 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 2-1 HT 1-1 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crewe Alexandra
3-2
AWAY Carlisle United
43% Ball Possession 57%
18 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 8
160 Passes 256
59% Pass Accuracy 69%
POST-MATCH Crewe Alexandra vs Carlisle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crewe Alexandra edged past Carlisle United 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Crewe Alexandra as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Crewe Alexandra had 43% of the ball to Carlisle United's 57%, shots finished 18-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Crewe Alexandra had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Crewe Alexandra and 1.33 for Carlisle United.

What was the final score of Crewe Alexandra vs Carlisle United?

Crewe Alexandra 3-2 Carlisle United in the England - 2nd Division on 01/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crewe Alexandra vs Carlisle United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Crewe Alexandra win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Crewe Alexandra 41%, draw 30%, Carlisle United 28%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Crewe Alexandra) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Crewe Alexandra) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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