Lancaster City 3-1 Ilkeston Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 13 Sep 2025

📅13/09/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.46
Draw
38%
3.35
Away
27%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.78
Over 2.5
39%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
8%
X/2
12%
X/X
25%
2/1
4%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
37%
-2.4pp
38%
Draw
27%
+11.1pp
27%
Away Win
36%
-8.7pp
61%
Under 2.5
52%
+9.1pp
39%
Over 2.5
48%
-9.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.8pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lancaster City EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Ilkeston Town EU Bookmakers 39%
+0% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -11%
1.26/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/1.65
-12% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -13%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
353 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lancaster City
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Ilkeston Town
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 3.25
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 6
0 Yellow Cards 1
15.03.2025 Ilkeston Town Ilkeston Town 4-0 HT 3-0 Lancaster City Lancaster City İNGNLP
09.11.2024 Lancaster City Lancaster City 4-3 HT 0-0 Ilkeston Town Ilkeston Town İNGNLP
10.02.2024 Ilkeston Town Ilkeston Town 2-3 Lancaster City Lancaster City İNGNLP
23.09.2023 Lancaster City Lancaster City 0-4 HT 0-2 Ilkeston Town Ilkeston Town İNGNLP
POST-MATCH Lancaster City vs Ilkeston Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lancaster City got the better of Ilkeston Town 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (35% / 38% / 27%) promised a tight game; Lancaster City found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Lancaster City and 3.25 for Ilkeston Town.

What was the final score of Lancaster City vs Ilkeston Town?

Lancaster City 3-1 Ilkeston Town in the England - Non League Premier on 13/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lancaster City vs Ilkeston Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Lancaster City 35%, draw 38%, Ilkeston Town 27%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✗ Under 2.5
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