Spartak Varna 3-0 Arda Kardzhali — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 13 Sep 2025

📅13/09/2025 · 🕒17:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 0-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
4.48
Draw
20%
3.45
Away
60%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.67
Over 2.5
53%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.06
No
50%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
13%
1/X
7%
X/1
8%
X/2
19%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
27%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
19%
+0.2pp
21%
Draw
26%
-5.4pp
60%
Away Win
55%
+5.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
56%
-9.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
44%
+9.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
44%
+5.3pp
50%
BTTS No
56%
-5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spartak Varna EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Arda Kardzhali EU Bookmakers 58%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
0.52/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.01
-45% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -16%
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
233 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 409 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spartak Varna
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Arda Kardzhali
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
6 Yellow Cards 6
07.02.2025 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 2-2 HT 1-1 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna BUL1
16.08.2024 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna 1-0 HT 1-0 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spartak Varna
3-0
AWAY Arda Kardzhali
37% Ball Possession 63%
9 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spartak Varna ran out comfortable winners over Arda Kardzhali 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

This one beat our numbers. Arda Kardzhali carried 60% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Spartak Varna had 37% of the ball to Arda Kardzhali's 63%, shots finished 9-9.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Spartak Varna had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Spartak Varna and 1.00 for Arda Kardzhali.

What was the final score of Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali?

Spartak Varna 3-0 Arda Kardzhali in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 13/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arda Kardzhali win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Spartak Varna 20%, draw 21%, Arda Kardzhali 60%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Arda Kardzhali) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Arda Kardzhali) ✓ Over 2.5
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