USM Alger 1-1 USM Khenchela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Algeria - 1st Division, 13 Sep 2025

📅13/09/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.53
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
17%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.56
Over 2.5
36%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.51
No
62%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
41%
2.25
2-3 Goals
37%
1.71
4-5 Goals
14%
4.68
6+ Goals
8%
27.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.25 — our 41% vs market 35.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
6%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
61%
-4.9pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.2pp
17%
Away Win
14%
+2.7pp
64%
Under 2.5
60%
+4.2pp
36%
Over 2.5
40%
-4.2pp
38%
BTTS Yes
36%
+2.4pp
62%
BTTS No
64%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME USM Alger EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY USM Khenchela EU Bookmakers 17%
+2% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +9%
1.63/0.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/1.54
+11% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -15%
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
375 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME USM Alger
4W-0D-2L
AWAY USM Khenchela
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 1
11.06.2025 USM Khenchela USM Khenchela 1-0 HT 0-0 USM Alger USM Alger CZYR
05.02.2025 USM Alger USM Alger 3-0 HT 1-0 USM Khenchela USM Khenchela CZYR
16.02.2024 USM Khenchela USM Khenchela 1-0 HT 1-0 USM Alger USM Alger CZYR
14.10.2023 USM Alger USM Alger 3-0 HT 0-0 USM Khenchela USM Khenchela CZYR
13.04.2023 USM Alger USM Alger 2-0 HT 2-0 USM Khenchela USM Khenchela CZYR
02.09.2022 USM Khenchela USM Khenchela 0-1 HT 0-1 USM Alger USM Alger CZYR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME USM Alger
1-1
AWAY USM Khenchela
62% Ball Possession 38%
12 Total Shots 4
4 Shots on Target 3
12 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH USM Alger vs USM Khenchela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

USM Alger and USM Khenchela shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had USM Alger at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. On goals, under 2.5 goals (64%) landed while no to both teams scoring (62%) missed.

On the day, USM Alger had 62% of the ball to USM Khenchela's 38%, shots finished 12-4.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, USM Alger had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for USM Alger and 0.33 for USM Khenchela.

What was the final score of USM Alger vs USM Khenchela?

USM Alger 1-1 USM Khenchela in the Algeria - 1st Division on 13/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for USM Alger vs USM Khenchela?

Before kick-off our model rated a USM Alger win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split USM Alger 56%, draw 26%, USM Khenchela 17%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (USM Alger), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (USM Alger) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
CZYR More Algeria - 1st Division
13 Sep 2025
19:00 ASO Chlef vs El Bayadh Analysis →
21:00 Belouizdad vs JS Saoura Analysis →