HB Koge 1-0 AC Horsens — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 13 Sep 2025

📅13/09/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
16%
3.87
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
58%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.0
Over 2.5
53%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.73
No
47%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.51
2-3 Goals
43%
1.75
4-5 Goals
24%
3.05
6+ Goals
8%
10.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
6.93
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
21.95
1/X
5%
15.3
X/1
6%
8.99
X/2
21%
4.25
X/X
12%
5.36
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
27%
2.21
2/X
9%
13.95
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.95 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
16%
Home Win
23%
-6.6pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.3pp
58%
Away Win
54%
+4.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
46%
+1.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
54%
-1.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
54%
-0.4pp
47%
BTTS No
46%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HB Koge EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY AC Horsens EU Bookmakers 57%
-4% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.25/1.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.08/0.94
-8% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -2%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
326 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 77%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 34.4
15.5 Crosses 25.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HB Koge
1W-2D-3L
AWAY AC Horsens
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.98 xG 1.72
50% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
385 Passes 372
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 31
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.11.2024 AC Horsens AC Horsens 0-0 HT 0-0 HB Koge HB Koge DAN1
11.08.2024 HB Koge HB Koge 0-2 HT 0-0 AC Horsens AC Horsens DAN1
01.06.2024 AC Horsens AC Horsens 1-1 HT 1-0 HB Koge HB Koge DAN1
01.04.2024 HB Koge HB Koge 5-0 HT 1-0 AC Horsens AC Horsens DAN1
03.11.2023 HB Koge HB Koge 1-4 HT 1-2 AC Horsens AC Horsens DAN1
04.08.2023 AC Horsens AC Horsens 2-0 HT 2-0 HB Koge HB Koge DAN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HB Koge
1-0
AWAY AC Horsens
1.95 xG 1.41
37% Ball Possession 63%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
226 Passes 457
74% Pass Accuracy 85%
21 Box Touches 30
10 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH HB Koge vs AC Horsens
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HB Koge squeezed past AC Horsens 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had AC Horsens at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, HB Koge had 37% of the ball to AC Horsens's 63%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 1.95 to 1.41.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AC Horsens led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for HB Koge and 1.50 for AC Horsens.

What was the final score of HB Koge vs AC Horsens?

HB Koge 1-0 AC Horsens in the Denmark 1st Division on 13/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HB Koge vs AC Horsens?

Before kick-off our model rated an AC Horsens win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split HB Koge 16%, draw 26%, AC Horsens 58%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (AC Horsens) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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