VVV-Venlo 2-1 Helmond Sport — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 13 Sep 2025

📅13/09/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
33%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.23
Over 2.5
57%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.5
No
42%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.28
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
28%
2.72
6+ Goals
12%
7.57
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.1
1/2
7%
26.0
1/X
7%
12.25
X/1
11%
5.44
X/2
13%
6.47
X/X
11%
5.43
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
22.8
2/2
12%
4.04
2/X
7%
12.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.8 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+0.6pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.2pp
33%
Away Win
33%
-0.4pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+1.9pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-1.9pp
58%
BTTS Yes
62%
-4.0pp
42%
BTTS No
38%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME VVV-Venlo EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Helmond Sport EU Bookmakers 37%
+2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -18%
1.69/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.56
-9% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -19%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
326 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 79%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
22.1 Crosses 17.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME VVV-Venlo
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Helmond Sport
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.44 xG 1.53
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
346 Passes 376
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
25 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.04.2025 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 4-1 HT 1-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
30.08.2024 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 3-0 HT 1-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
01.03.2024 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 1-1 HT 0-1 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
01.10.2023 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 0-4 HT 0-1 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
05.05.2023 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 1-1 HT 0-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
06.01.2023 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 1-1 HT 1-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME VVV-Venlo
2-1
AWAY Helmond Sport
2.00 xG 1.52
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
310 Passes 307
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH VVV-Venlo vs Helmond Sport
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

VVV-Venlo squeezed past Helmond Sport 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had VVV-Venlo as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, VVV-Venlo had 50% of the ball to Helmond Sport's 50%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 2.00 to 1.52.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Helmond Sport led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for VVV-Venlo and 1.83 for Helmond Sport.

What was the final score of VVV-Venlo vs Helmond Sport?

VVV-Venlo 2-1 Helmond Sport in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 13/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for VVV-Venlo vs Helmond Sport?

Before kick-off our model rated a VVV-Venlo win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split VVV-Venlo 43%, draw 25%, Helmond Sport 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (VVV-Venlo), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (VVV-Venlo) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →