Progress / AFA Olaine 3-2 Smiltene — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 13 Sep 2025

Progress / AFA Olaine
3-2
Smiltene
📅13/09/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
Latvia - 1st Division – 2025

Progress / AFA Olaine vs Smiltene Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
5.4
Draw
12%
5.15
Away
60%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
33%
Over 2.5
67%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.55
No
46%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
17%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
8%
1/X
3%
X/1
8%
X/2
19%
X/X
6%
2/1
4%
2/2
33%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
15%
+13.2pp
12%
Draw
16%
-3.6pp
60%
Away Win
70%
-9.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.4pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Progress / AFA Olaine v Smiltene — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Progress / AFA Olaine EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Smiltene EU Bookmakers 75%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -82% / -82%
2.12/2.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/2.97
+91% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -55% / -66%
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
267 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 452 · 84%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Progress / AFA Olaine vs Smiltene Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Progress / AFA Olaine
3W-0D-1L
AWAY Smiltene
3.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
The Meetings
04.05.2025 Smiltene Smiltene 4-2 HT 1-2 Progress / AFA Olaine Progress / AFA Olaine LET1
21.09.2024 Smiltene Smiltene 0-4 Progress / AFA Olaine Progress / AFA Olaine LET1
20.08.2023 Smiltene Smiltene 1-3 HT 1-1 Progress / AFA Olaine Progress / AFA Olaine LET1
23.04.2023 Progress / AFA Olaine Progress / AFA Olaine 4-0 HT 2-0 Smiltene Smiltene LET1
POST-MATCH Progress / AFA Olaine vs Smiltene
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Progress / AFA Olaine nicked a narrow win over Smiltene 3-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Smiltene at 60% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (67%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Progress / AFA Olaine had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 3.25 goals for Progress / AFA Olaine and 1.25 for Smiltene.

What was the final score of Progress / AFA Olaine vs Smiltene?

Progress / AFA Olaine 3-2 Smiltene in the Latvia - 1st Division on 13/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Progress / AFA Olaine vs Smiltene?

Before kick-off our model rated an Smiltene win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Progress / AFA Olaine 28%, draw 12%, Smiltene 60%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Smiltene) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Smiltene) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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