Pari Nizhny Novgorod 3-1 FK Orenburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 13 Sep 2025

📅13/09/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.25
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
32%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.78
Over 2.5
49%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.76
No
49%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.01
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.89
6+ Goals
9%
17.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.35
1/2
7%
32.0
1/X
9%
13.05
X/1
13%
5.1
X/2
12%
6.05
X/X
12%
4.38
2/1
10%
27.5
2/2
13%
4.35
2/X
6%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
41%
+0.1pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.1pp
32%
Away Win
32%
-0.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.1pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pari Nizhny Novgorod EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 36%
-6% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -15%
1.03/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.30
-4% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -3%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
292 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 76%
15.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
15.6 Crosses 18.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pari Nizhny Novgorod
2W-0D-4L
AWAY FK Orenburg
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.11 xG 1.28
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
270 Passes 304
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
24 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.04.2025 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod 1-2 HT 1-2 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
27.09.2024 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-2 HT 0-1 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod RUS
14.04.2024 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 3-1 HT 1-1 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod RUS
24.09.2023 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod 3-1 HT 1-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
30.04.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod RUS
18.09.2022 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod 0-2 HT 0-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
POST-MATCH Pari Nizhny Novgorod vs FK Orenburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pari Nizhny Novgorod saw off FK Orenburg 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Pari Nizhny Novgorod as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FK Orenburg led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Pari Nizhny Novgorod and 1.67 for FK Orenburg.

What was the final score of Pari Nizhny Novgorod vs FK Orenburg?

Pari Nizhny Novgorod 3-1 FK Orenburg in the Russia - Premier League on 13/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pari Nizhny Novgorod vs FK Orenburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pari Nizhny Novgorod win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Pari Nizhny Novgorod 41%, draw 27%, FK Orenburg 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pari Nizhny Novgorod), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pari Nizhny Novgorod) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
RUS More Russia - Premier League
13 Sep 2025
16:45 Dinamo Moscow vs Spartak Moskova Analysis →
16:45 FC Akhmat Grozny vs Lokomotiv Moscow Analysis →
19:30 Krasnodar vs Akron Analysis →