FC Akhmat Grozny 1-1 Lokomotiv Moscow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 13 Sep 2025

📅13/09/2025 · 🕒16:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.46
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
36%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.31
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
19%
3.57
6+ Goals
8%
14.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.31 — our 32% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.65
1/2
6%
28.5
1/X
5%
12.55
X/1
13%
5.6
X/2
9%
5.8
X/X
13%
4.51
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
21%
3.85
2/X
10%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
37%
-1.1pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.1pp
36%
Away Win
35%
+1.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+5.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-5.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.9pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 38%
-3% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +9%
1.26/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.29
-15% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / +12%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
298 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 75%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.7
18.3 Crosses 14.9
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.22 xG 1.60
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
264 Passes 356
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
24 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
15.04.2025 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 2-1 HT 2-1 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUSK
07.03.2025 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-1 HT 1-1 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
04.08.2024 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 0-5 HT 0-3 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
07.04.2024 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 0-2 HT 0-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
11.11.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 2-1 HT 0-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
11.03.2023 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 0-1 HT 0-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny
1-1
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
1.34 xG 1.14
38% Ball Possession 62%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
216 Passes 415
74% Pass Accuracy 85%
32 Box Touches 30
23 Crosses 26
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH FC Akhmat Grozny vs Lokomotiv Moscow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Akhmat Grozny and Lokomotiv Moscow shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (36% / 28% / 36%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, FC Akhmat Grozny had 38% of the ball to Lokomotiv Moscow's 62%, shots finished 14-14, expected goals 1.34 to 1.14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lokomotiv Moscow led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for FC Akhmat Grozny and 2.17 for Lokomotiv Moscow.

What was the final score of FC Akhmat Grozny vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

FC Akhmat Grozny 1-1 Lokomotiv Moscow in the Russia - Premier League on 13/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Akhmat Grozny vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Akhmat Grozny win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split FC Akhmat Grozny 36%, draw 28%, Lokomotiv Moscow 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/28/36) ✓ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
RUS More Russia - Premier League
13 Sep 2025
14:00 Pari Nizhny Novgorod vs FK Orenburg Analysis →
16:45 Dinamo Moscow vs Spartak Moskova Analysis →
19:30 Krasnodar vs Akron Analysis →