Lokomotiv Moscow 2-1 FC Akhmat Grozny — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Super Cup, 15 Apr 2025

📅15/04/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.66
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
31%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.97
Over 2.5
55%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.76
No
44%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.7
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.41
6+ Goals
11%
12.3
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.41 — our 26% vs market 24.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.16
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.55
X/1
13%
4.25
X/2
8%
9.9
X/X
9%
5.42
2/1
8%
22.9
2/2
18%
7.87
2/X
9%
16.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
56%
-13.4pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.3pp
31%
Away Win
20%
+11.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
47%
-1.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
53%
+1.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
53%
+3.4pp
44%
BTTS No
47%
-3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Akhmat Grozny EU Bookmakers 23%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
365 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
4W-1D-1L
AWAY FC Akhmat Grozny
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.72 xG 1.14
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
374 Passes 240
78% Pass Accuracy 72%
28 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
07.03.2025 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-1 HT 1-1 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
04.08.2024 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 0-5 HT 0-3 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
07.04.2024 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 0-2 HT 0-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
11.11.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 2-1 HT 0-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
11.03.2023 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 0-1 HT 0-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
04.09.2022 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-2 HT 1-1 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
2-1
AWAY FC Akhmat Grozny
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lokomotiv Moscow vs FC Akhmat Grozny
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Moscow squeezed past FC Akhmat Grozny 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lokomotiv Moscow as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Lokomotiv Moscow had 48% of the ball to FC Akhmat Grozny's 52%, shots finished 9-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lokomotiv Moscow had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Lokomotiv Moscow and 0.67 for FC Akhmat Grozny.

What was the final score of Lokomotiv Moscow vs FC Akhmat Grozny?

Lokomotiv Moscow 2-1 FC Akhmat Grozny in the Russia - Super Cup on 15/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiv Moscow vs FC Akhmat Grozny?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiv Moscow 43%, draw 26%, FC Akhmat Grozny 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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