Pau 1-0 Ajaccio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 13 Dec 2024

Pau
1-0 HT 1-0
Ajaccio
📅13/12/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.57
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
19%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.74
Over 2.5
44%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.09
No
54%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.78
2-3 Goals
44%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.95
6+ Goals
7%
18.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.06
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
17.35
X/1
20%
3.61
X/2
6%
10.95
X/X
13%
4.91
2/1
8%
26.5
2/2
7%
9.5
2/X
9%
18.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
60%
-6.6pp
28%
Draw
24%
+4.3pp
19%
Away Win
17%
+2.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
54%
+2.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
46%
-2.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.1pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pau EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajaccio EU Bookmakers 20%
-42% / -42% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -27%
1.12/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.57/1.42
-12% / -64% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -51% / -12%
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
394 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 73%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.5
18.4 Crosses 13.7
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pau
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Ajaccio
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.85 xG 1.43
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
318 Passes 360
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
06.04.2024 Pau Pau 1-1 HT 1-1 Ajaccio Ajaccio FR2
21.10.2023 Ajaccio Ajaccio 2-0 HT 0-0 Pau Pau FR2
09.04.2022 Ajaccio Ajaccio 2-1 HT 0-0 Pau Pau FR2
30.10.2021 Pau Pau 1-0 HT 0-0 Ajaccio Ajaccio FR2
01.05.2021 Pau Pau 0-0 HT 0-0 Ajaccio Ajaccio FR2
05.01.2021 Ajaccio Ajaccio 4-1 HT 2-1 Pau Pau FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pau
1-0
AWAY Ajaccio
2.11 xG 0.27
45% Ball Possession 55%
22 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
278 Passes 359
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
24 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pau vs Ajaccio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pau squeezed past Ajaccio 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Pau as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Pau had 45% of the ball to Ajaccio's 55%, shots finished 22-9, expected goals 2.11 to 0.27 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Pau's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajaccio led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Pau and 1.50 for Ajaccio.

What was the final score of Pau vs Ajaccio?

Pau 1-0 Ajaccio in the France - Ligue 2 on 13/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pau vs Ajaccio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pau win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Pau 53%, draw 28%, Ajaccio 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pau), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Pau) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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