Burnley 2-3 Fulham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 13 Dec 2025

Burnley
2-3 HT 1-2
Fulham
📅13/12/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
England - Premier League – 2025/2026

Burnley vs Fulham Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.46
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
46%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
58%
1.74
Over 2.5
42%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.85
No
56%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.84
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
3.96
6+ Goals
8%
18.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.84 — our 33% vs market 28.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
6.06
1/2
8%
26.5
1/X
5%
14.85
X/1
11%
7.63
X/2
13%
4.55
X/X
17%
4.45
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
25%
2.74
2/X
5%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 58% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
26%
+1.2pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.4pp
46%
Away Win
47%
-0.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
54%
+4.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
46%
-4.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
50%
-5.8pp
56%
BTTS No
50%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Burnley v Fulham — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burnley EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Fulham EU Bookmakers 51%
-2% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.27/1.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.02/0.71
-12% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +150%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
308 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 396 · 80%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.0
20.4 Crosses 22.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 0.8

Burnley vs Fulham Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burnley
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Fulham
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.36 xG 1.04
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
241 Passes 414
66% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.02.2024 Burnley Burnley 2-2 HT 0-2 Fulham Fulham İNP
23.12.2023 Fulham Fulham 0-2 HT 0-0 Burnley Burnley İNP
10.05.2021 Fulham Fulham 0-2 HT 0-2 Burnley Burnley İNP
17.02.2021 Burnley Burnley 1-1 HT 0-0 Fulham Fulham İNP
24.01.2021 Fulham Fulham 0-3 HT 0-1 Burnley Burnley FAK
12.01.2019 Burnley Burnley 2-1 HT 2-1 Fulham Fulham İNP

Burnley 2-3 Fulham — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burnley
2-3
AWAY Fulham
2.46 xG 1.96
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 4
444 Passes 393
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
25 Box Touches 15
17 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Burnley vs Fulham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fulham squeezed past Burnley 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Fulham as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Burnley had 53% of the ball to Fulham's 47%, shots finished 16-6, expected goals 2.46 to 1.96 — the balance of chances actually favoured Burnley.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Burnley had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Burnley and 0.67 for Fulham.

What was the final score of Burnley vs Fulham?

Burnley 2-3 Fulham in the England - Premier League on 13/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burnley vs Fulham?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fulham win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Burnley 27%, draw 27%, Fulham 46%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fulham) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fulham) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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İNP More England - Premier League
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