MSV Duisburg 0-0 Erzgebirge Aue — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 13 Dec 2025

MSV Duisburg
0-0 HT 0-0
Erzgebirge Aue
📅13/12/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Germany - 3rd Division – 2025/2026

MSV Duisburg vs Erzgebirge Aue Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.75
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
23%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.03
Over 2.5
57%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.7
No
43%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.77
2-3 Goals
37%
1.82
4-5 Goals
27%
3.14
6+ Goals
11%
10.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
2.27
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
6%
14.4
X/1
14%
4.36
X/2
7%
9.07
X/X
9%
5.61
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.8
2/2
10%
6.91
2/X
6%
15.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.8 — our 9% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
53%
+2.3pp
21%
Draw
24%
-2.8pp
24%
Away Win
23%
+0.5pp
43%
Under 2.5
45%
-2.0pp
57%
Over 2.5
55%
+2.0pp
57%
BTTS Yes
55%
+2.7pp
43%
BTTS No
45%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

MSV Duisburg v Erzgebirge Aue — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MSV Duisburg EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 26%
+6% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -19%
2.07/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/2.01
+14% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -20%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
313 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 74%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
17.3 Crosses 16.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3

MSV Duisburg vs Erzgebirge Aue Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MSV Duisburg
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.44 xG 1.39
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
272 Passes 286
74% Pass Accuracy 76%
23 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
12.05.2024 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 2-2 HT 0-1 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
09.12.2023 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 1-1 HT 1-0 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg AL3
05.05.2023 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 3-0 HT 1-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
08.11.2022 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 0-2 HT 0-1 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg AL3
24.02.2019 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 0-0 HT 0-0 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg AL2
23.09.2018 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 1-2 HT 1-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL2

MSV Duisburg 0-0 Erzgebirge Aue — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MSV Duisburg
0-0
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
304 Passes 296
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
25 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH MSV Duisburg vs Erzgebirge Aue
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MSV Duisburg and Erzgebirge Aue fought out a 0-0 stalemate. Neither side could find a way through.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had MSV Duisburg at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, MSV Duisburg had 51% of the ball to Erzgebirge Aue's 49%, shots finished 16-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, MSV Duisburg had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for MSV Duisburg and 0.83 for Erzgebirge Aue.

What was the final score of MSV Duisburg vs Erzgebirge Aue?

MSV Duisburg 0-0 Erzgebirge Aue in the Germany - 3rd Division on 13/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MSV Duisburg vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Before kick-off our model rated a MSV Duisburg win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split MSV Duisburg 56%, draw 21%, Erzgebirge Aue 24%. The final score 0-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (MSV Duisburg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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