Casa Pia 1-1 Gil Vicente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 13 Dec 2025

📅13/12/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.46
Draw
29%
2.94
Away
42%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.48
Over 2.5
48%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.13
No
53%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.16
2-3 Goals
35%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
5.57
6+ Goals
13%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
6.25
1/2
9%
33.5
1/X
6%
15.7
X/1
16%
7.19
X/2
11%
4.49
X/X
19%
3.64
2/1
4%
35.0
2/2
21%
3.05
2/X
4%
14.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
26%
+3.8pp
29%
Draw
31%
-1.6pp
42%
Away Win
44%
-2.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
64%
-11.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
36%
+11.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
43%
+4.0pp
53%
BTTS No
57%
-4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Casa Pia EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Gil Vicente EU Bookmakers 48%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
1.08/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.16
-21% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +64% / +40%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
288 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 79%
15.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
14.8 Crosses 14.7
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Casa Pia
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Gil Vicente
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.05 xG 1.07
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
289 Passes 422
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.02.2025 Casa Pia Casa Pia 1-0 HT 0-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
22.09.2024 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 1-1 HT 1-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
03.03.2024 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-0 HT 0-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
02.10.2023 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 2-0 HT 0-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
27.05.2023 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 1-0 HT 0-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
22.01.2023 Casa Pia Casa Pia 1-3 HT 0-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Casa Pia
1-1
AWAY Gil Vicente
0.15 xG 0.85
33% Ball Possession 67%
3 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 8
180 Passes 409
72% Pass Accuracy 85%
10 Box Touches 24
6 Crosses 35
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Casa Pia vs Gil Vicente
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Casa Pia and Gil Vicente shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Gil Vicente at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Casa Pia had 33% of the ball to Gil Vicente's 67%, shots finished 3-11, expected goals 0.15 to 0.85.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gil Vicente led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Casa Pia and 1.17 for Gil Vicente.

What was the final score of Casa Pia vs Gil Vicente?

Casa Pia 1-1 Gil Vicente in the Portugal - Premier League on 13/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Casa Pia vs Gil Vicente?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gil Vicente win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Casa Pia 30%, draw 29%, Gil Vicente 42%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Gil Vicente), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gil Vicente) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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