Casa Pia 1-0 Gil Vicente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 22 Feb 2025

📅22/02/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.59
Over 2.5
40%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.99
No
59%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.38
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
4.69
6+ Goals
8%
27.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.26
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.95
X/1
18%
4.75
X/2
16%
6.37
X/X
13%
3.9
2/1
10%
31.0
2/2
8%
5.11
2/X
6%
14.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+0.5pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.8pp
29%
Away Win
29%
+0.3pp
60%
Under 2.5
59%
+0.6pp
40%
Over 2.5
41%
-0.6pp
41%
BTTS Yes
46%
-5.1pp
59%
BTTS No
54%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Casa Pia EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Gil Vicente EU Bookmakers 32%
-4% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / +3%
1.10/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.27
-17% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -7%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
315 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 78%
18.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
18.7 Crosses 17.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Casa Pia
0W-2D-3L
AWAY Gil Vicente
0.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
1.10 xG 1.26
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
295 Passes 418
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.09.2024 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 1-1 HT 1-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
03.03.2024 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-0 HT 0-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
02.10.2023 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 2-0 HT 0-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
27.05.2023 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 1-0 HT 0-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
22.01.2023 Casa Pia Casa Pia 1-3 HT 0-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Casa Pia
1-0
AWAY Gil Vicente
0.79 xG 0.13
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 4
1 Shots on Target 0
2 Corners 5
259 Passes 445
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 18
13 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Casa Pia vs Gil Vicente
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Casa Pia edged past Gil Vicente 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Casa Pia as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (59%) came in.

On the day, Casa Pia had 39% of the ball to Gil Vicente's 61%, shots finished 10-4, expected goals 0.79 to 0.13.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Gil Vicente led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.40 goals for Casa Pia and 1.40 for Gil Vicente.

What was the final score of Casa Pia vs Gil Vicente?

Casa Pia 1-0 Gil Vicente in the Portugal - Premier League on 22/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Casa Pia vs Gil Vicente?

Before kick-off our model rated a Casa Pia win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Casa Pia 43%, draw 28%, Gil Vicente 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Casa Pia), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Casa Pia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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