Estoril 2-1 Rio Ave — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 22 Feb 2025

📅22/02/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.02
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.04
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.61
6+ Goals
10%
15.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.04 — our 28% vs market 26.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.91
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
11%
13.2
X/1
15%
4.78
X/2
9%
6.92
X/X
10%
4.56
2/1
9%
25.5
2/2
15%
5.16
2/X
7%
13.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
45%
-2.3pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.1pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+1.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.3pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estoril EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Rio Ave EU Bookmakers 32%
-2% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +2%
1.16/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.50
+12% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +13%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
320 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 77%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
17.6 Crosses 16.2
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estoril
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Rio Ave
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.26 xG 1.30
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
289 Passes 397
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
21.09.2024 Rio Ave Rio Ave 2-2 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR
31.01.2024 Rio Ave Rio Ave 1-1 HT 0-0 Estoril Estoril POR
20.08.2023 Estoril Estoril 2-0 HT 0-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
13.02.2023 Rio Ave Rio Ave 2-0 HT 0-0 Estoril Estoril POR
19.08.2022 Estoril Estoril 2-2 HT 1-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
12.01.2021 Rio Ave Rio Ave 1-2 HT 0-2 Estoril Estoril POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estoril
2-1
AWAY Rio Ave
1.27 xG 1.37
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
0 Corners 4
417 Passes 374
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 19
6 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Estoril vs Rio Ave
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Estoril squeezed past Rio Ave 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Estoril as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Estoril had 51% of the ball to Rio Ave's 49%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 1.27 to 1.37.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Estoril had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Estoril and 1.33 for Rio Ave.

What was the final score of Estoril vs Rio Ave?

Estoril 2-1 Rio Ave in the Portugal - Premier League on 22/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estoril vs Rio Ave?

Before kick-off our model rated a Estoril win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Estoril 43%, draw 28%, Rio Ave 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Estoril), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Estoril) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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