14/01/2024
·
18:20
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-2
2nd Score
2-1
Xewkija vs Gudja United Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
3%
1/X
11%
X/1
4%
X/2
16%
X/X
3%
2/1
9%
2/2
42%
2/X
3%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
15%
18%
Draw
18%
61%
Away Win
66%
41%
Under 2.5
31%
59%
Over 2.5
69%
57%
BTTS Yes
56%
43%
BTTS No
44%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Xewkija v Gudja United — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Xewkija
EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY
Gudja United
EU Bookmakers 71%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
44%
Ball Possession
56%
9
Total Shots
16
3
Shots on Target
7
3
Corners
6
294 · 73%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
382 · 79%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Xewkija vs Gudja United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Gudja United cruised past Xewkija 3-0 away from home.
As we said in the preview, our model had Gudja United as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (59%) landed while both teams to score (57%) missed.
What was the final score of Xewkija vs Gudja United?
Xewkija 0-3 Gudja United in the Malta - FA Cup on 14/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Xewkija vs Gudja United?
Before kick-off our model rated an Gudja United win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Xewkija 22%, draw 18%, Gudja United 61%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gudja United), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Gudja United)
✓ Over 2.5
✗ BTTS Yes
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14 Jan 2024