Holstein Kiel vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Holstein Kiel v Borussia Dortmund — Team-Based Signals
Holstein Kiel vs Borussia Dortmund Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings
5-0
HT 5-0
Holstein Kiel
AFK
0-4
HT 0-2
Borussia Dortmund
AFK
Holstein Kiel 4-2 Borussia Dortmund — Actual Match Statistics
Holstein Kiel saw off Borussia Dortmund 4-2. Half-time: 3-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match lean was Borussia Dortmund at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.
On the day, Holstein Kiel had 25% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund's 75%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 1.59 to 1.05.
For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Holstein Kiel and 4.50 for Borussia Dortmund.
What was the final score of Holstein Kiel vs Borussia Dortmund?
Holstein Kiel 4-2 Borussia Dortmund in the Germany - Bundesliga on 14/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Holstein Kiel vs Borussia Dortmund?
Before kick-off our model rated an Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Holstein Kiel 29%, draw 28%, Borussia Dortmund 43%. The final score 4-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.