Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 Mainz 05 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 14 Jan 2025

Bayer Leverkusen
1-0 HT 0-0
Mainz 05
📅14/01/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz 05 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.42
Draw
25%
4.34
Away
23%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.15
Over 2.5
57%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.9
No
44%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
3.97
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
28%
2.98
6+ Goals
13%
9.33
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 2.98 — our 28% vs market 27.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.71
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
19.4
X/1
11%
3.57
X/2
8%
14.9
X/X
14%
6.67
2/1
7%
22.55
2/2
10%
11.85
2/X
5%
20.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
66%
-14.3pp
25%
Draw
20%
+5.1pp
23%
Away Win
14%
+9.3pp
43%
Under 2.5
43%
+0.7pp
57%
Over 2.5
57%
-0.7pp
56%
BTTS Yes
49%
+7.3pp
44%
BTTS No
51%
-7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bayer Leverkusen v Mainz 05 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 17%
-8% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +9%
2.04/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.77
-3% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / +3%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
447 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 256 · 71%
33.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
21.5 Crosses 15.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4

Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz 05 Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Mainz 05
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.52 xG 1.08
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
462 Passes 288
83% Pass Accuracy 74%
22 Box Touches 26
17 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
23.02.2024 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 HT 1-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
30.09.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-3 HT 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
19.02.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-3 HT 1-2 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
27.08.2022 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-3 HT 0-3 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
18.02.2022 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 3-2 HT 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
25.09.2021 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 HT 0-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1

Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 Mainz 05 — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
1-0
AWAY Mainz 05
1.85 xG 0.72
67% Ball Possession 33%
20 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
659 Passes 278
89% Pass Accuracy 77%
35 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz 05
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayer Leverkusen edged past Mainz 05 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bayer Leverkusen as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bayer Leverkusen had 67% of the ball to Mainz 05's 33%, shots finished 20-7, expected goals 1.85 to 0.72.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.17 for Mainz 05.

What was the final score of Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz 05?

Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 Mainz 05 in the Germany - Bundesliga on 14/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz 05?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Bayer Leverkusen 52%, draw 25%, Mainz 05 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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