Farense 1-3 Benfica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 14 Jan 2025

Farense
1-3 HT 1-0
Benfica
📅14/01/2025 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Portugal - Cup – 2024/2025

Farense vs Benfica Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
7.78
Draw
28%
4.62
Away
54%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.0
Over 2.5
48%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.16
No
56%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.45
2-3 Goals
35%
1.75
4-5 Goals
25%
3.14
6+ Goals
8%
11.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.45 — our 32% vs market 22.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
16.1
1/2
7%
25.5
1/X
6%
24.3
X/1
8%
18.65
X/2
17%
3.32
X/X
14%
6.74
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
30%
1.59
2/X
8%
23.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
10%
+7.7pp
28%
Draw
19%
+9.2pp
54%
Away Win
71%
-16.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
46%
+6.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
54%
-6.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
42%
+1.9pp
56%
BTTS No
58%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Farense v Benfica — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Farense EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY Benfica EU Bookmakers 75%
+53% / +53% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +1%
0.66/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.22/0.62
-15% / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +21%
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
258 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 401 · 80%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 40.3
– Crosses 24.3
– Yellow Cards 2.4

Farense vs Benfica Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Farense
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Benfica
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.07 xG 2.52
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 7
217 Passes 478
68% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 42
16 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.11.2024 Farense Farense 1-2 HT 1-1 Benfica Benfica POR
12.07.2024 Benfica Benfica 5-0 Farense Farense HAZ
22.04.2024 Farense Farense 1-3 HT 1-2 Benfica Benfica POR
08.12.2023 Benfica Benfica 1-1 HT 0-0 Farense Farense POR
21.02.2021 Farense Farense 0-0 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica POR
04.10.2020 Benfica Benfica 3-2 HT 1-0 Farense Farense POR

Farense 1-3 Benfica — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Farense
1-3
AWAY Benfica
0.73 xG 0.96
34% Ball Possession 66%
7 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
188 Passes 449
68% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 30
19 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Farense vs Benfica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica got the better of Farense 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Farense had 34% of the ball to Benfica's 66%, shots finished 7-14, expected goals 0.73 to 0.96.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Farense and 2.33 for Benfica.

What was the final score of Farense vs Benfica?

Farense 1-3 Benfica in the Portugal - Cup on 14/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Farense vs Benfica?

Before kick-off our model rated an Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Farense 18%, draw 28%, Benfica 54%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Benfica) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →