CA Sarmiento 0-1 Lanus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 14 Feb 2024

📅14/02/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.29
Draw
33%
2.94
Away
38%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
70%
1.45
Over 2.5
30%
2.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
35%
2.27
No
65%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
46%
2.03
2-3 Goals
35%
1.81
4-5 Goals
13%
6.22
6+ Goals
6%
34.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.03 — our 46% vs market 41.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
4.78
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
14.6
X/1
13%
5.74
X/2
14%
4.74
X/X
16%
3.33
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
19%
3.65
2/X
10%
14.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
27%
+1.7pp
33%
Draw
30%
+2.5pp
38%
Away Win
42%
-4.2pp
70%
Under 2.5
65%
+4.6pp
30%
Over 2.5
35%
-4.6pp
35%
BTTS Yes
40%
-4.8pp
65%
BTTS No
60%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA Sarmiento EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Lanus EU Bookmakers 46%
+1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -11%
1.07/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/0.92
-3% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -14%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
261 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 74%
17.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.3
18.7 Crosses 20.7
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA Sarmiento
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Lanus
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.28 xG 1.25
37% Ball Possession 63%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
201 Passes 417
70% Pass Accuracy 81%
17 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
19.09.2023 Lanus Lanus 0-0 HT 0-0 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJ
22.04.2023 Lanus Lanus 2-1 HT 2-0 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJ
06.08.2022 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 2-1 HT 2-0 Lanus Lanus ARJ
04.09.2021 Lanus Lanus 1-1 HT 0-0 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJ
17.04.2021 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 1-0 HT 0-0 Lanus Lanus ARJ
05.11.2016 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 1-2 HT 1-1 Lanus Lanus ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CA Sarmiento
0-1
AWAY Lanus
0.19 xG 0.96
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
218 Passes 221
68% Pass Accuracy 70%
7 Box Touches 19
29 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH CA Sarmiento vs Lanus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lanus edged past CA Sarmiento 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (29% / 33% / 38%) promised a tight game; Lanus found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (70%), no to both teams scoring (65%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, CA Sarmiento had 51% of the ball to Lanus's 49%, shots finished 9-15, expected goals 0.19 to 0.96.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for CA Sarmiento and 1.00 for Lanus.

What was the final score of CA Sarmiento vs Lanus?

CA Sarmiento 0-1 Lanus in the Argentina - Premier League on 14/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA Sarmiento vs Lanus?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lanus win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split CA Sarmiento 29%, draw 33%, Lanus 38%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lanus), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lanus) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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