HJK Helsinki 2-1 IFK Mariehamn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - League Cup, 14 Feb 2025

📅14/02/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
67%
1.11
Draw
18%
8.11
Away
15%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
3.17
Over 2.5
59%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.6
No
53%
1.43
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
7.68
2-3 Goals
42%
2.26
4-5 Goals
27%
2.28
6+ Goals
12%
3.89
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
4%
1/X
3%
X/1
25%
X/2
8%
X/X
9%
2/1
4%
2/2
4%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
67%
Home Win
85%
-18.1pp
18%
Draw
9%
+9.0pp
15%
Away Win
6%
+9.0pp
41%
Under 2.5
28%
+12.9pp
59%
Over 2.5
72%
-12.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
34%
+12.4pp
53%
BTTS No
66%
-12.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HJK Helsinki EU Bookmakers 90%
Head to Head
AWAY IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 9%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
2.25/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.52/1.42
+48% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -45% / +57%
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
515 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HJK Helsinki
5W-1D-0L
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.04 xG 0.67
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
457 Passes 265
84% Pass Accuracy 72%
29 Box Touches 12
25 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.06.2024 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-2 HT 1-1 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
20.04.2024 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 2-1 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
26.01.2024 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 1-0 HT 0-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FLK
05.08.2023 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 4-2 HT 2-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
27.05.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-0 HT 0-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
27.01.2023 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 3-0 HT 2-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HJK Helsinki
2-1
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
64% Ball Possession 36%
8 Total Shots 2
4 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH HJK Helsinki vs IFK Mariehamn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HJK Helsinki squeezed past IFK Mariehamn 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had HJK Helsinki as the likeliest winner at 67%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

On the day, HJK Helsinki had 64% of the ball to IFK Mariehamn's 36%, shots finished 8-2.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, HJK Helsinki had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for HJK Helsinki and 0.67 for IFK Mariehamn.

What was the final score of HJK Helsinki vs IFK Mariehamn?

HJK Helsinki 2-1 IFK Mariehamn in the Finland - League Cup on 14/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HJK Helsinki vs IFK Mariehamn?

Before kick-off our model rated a HJK Helsinki win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split HJK Helsinki 67%, draw 18%, IFK Mariehamn 15%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (HJK Helsinki), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (HJK Helsinki) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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