IFK Mariehamn 1-2 HJK Helsinki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 30 Jun 2024

📅30/06/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
4.13
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
42%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.75
Over 2.5
48%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.95
No
52%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2.95
2-3 Goals
44%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.96
6+ Goals
10%
18.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
7.76
1/2
11%
25.5
1/X
6%
16.0
X/1
6%
9.43
X/2
10%
3.87
X/X
17%
4.62
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
21%
2.25
2/X
7%
15.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
21%
+6.7pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.4pp
42%
Away Win
53%
-11.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
53%
-0.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
47%
+0.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.1pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY HJK Helsinki EU Bookmakers 57%
-10% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
0.88/1.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/0.89
-14% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -25%
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
212 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 516 · 85%
14.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.8
15.5 Crosses 19.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME IFK Mariehamn
0W-1D-5L
AWAY HJK Helsinki
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.35 xG 1.55
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 7
240 Passes 480
70% Pass Accuracy 86%
5 Box Touches 30
9 Crosses 38
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.04.2024 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 2-1 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
26.01.2024 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 1-0 HT 0-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FLK
05.08.2023 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 4-2 HT 2-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
27.05.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-0 HT 0-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
27.01.2023 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 3-0 HT 2-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FLK
30.07.2022 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 1-0 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME IFK Mariehamn
1-2
AWAY HJK Helsinki
0.99 xG 0.53
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
315 Passes 410
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 28
20 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH IFK Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HJK Helsinki nicked a narrow win over IFK Mariehamn 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had HJK Helsinki as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, IFK Mariehamn had 46% of the ball to HJK Helsinki's 54%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 0.99 to 0.53 — on chances, IFK Mariehamn could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, HJK Helsinki led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for IFK Mariehamn and 1.83 for HJK Helsinki.

What was the final score of IFK Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki?

IFK Mariehamn 1-2 HJK Helsinki in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 30/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for IFK Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki?

Before kick-off our model rated an HJK Helsinki win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split IFK Mariehamn 28%, draw 30%, HJK Helsinki 42%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (HJK Helsinki) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (HJK Helsinki) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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