Aubagne 1-2 Villefranche — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 14 Feb 2025

📅14/02/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.18
Draw
33%
3.04
Away
26%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.59
Over 2.5
37%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
1.99
No
62%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
40%
2.33
2-3 Goals
33%
1.72
4-5 Goals
19%
4.57
6+ Goals
8%
26.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.33 — our 40% vs market 34.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
3.22
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.65
X/1
10%
4.76
X/2
8%
6.54
X/X
22%
3.83
2/1
4%
31.0
2/2
14%
5.24
2/X
4%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-1.6pp
33%
Draw
30%
+3.7pp
26%
Away Win
28%
-2.0pp
63%
Under 2.5
59%
+3.6pp
37%
Over 2.5
41%
-3.6pp
38%
BTTS Yes
46%
-8.3pp
62%
BTTS No
54%
+8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aubagne EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Villefranche EU Bookmakers 32%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +8%
0.99/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.04
-24% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +20%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
311 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aubagne
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Villefranche
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
43% Ball Possession 57%
7 Total Shots 8
1 Shots on Target 4
0 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 2
13.09.2024 Villefranche Villefranche 0-1 HT 0-0 Aubagne Aubagne FR3
POST-MATCH Aubagne vs Villefranche
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Villefranche nicked a narrow win over Aubagne 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (40% / 33% / 26%) promised a tight game; Villefranche found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of Aubagne vs Villefranche?

Aubagne 1-2 Villefranche in the France - National League 1 on 14/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aubagne vs Villefranche?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aubagne win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Aubagne 40%, draw 33%, Villefranche 26%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Aubagne) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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