Swarovski Tirol vs Sturm Graz Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Swarovski Tirol v Sturm Graz — Team-Based Signals
Swarovski Tirol vs Sturm Graz Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 1-0
Swarovski Tirol
AVU
0-2
HT 0-0
Sturm Graz
AVU
Swarovski Tirol 1-0 Sturm Graz — Actual Match Statistics
Swarovski Tirol nicked a narrow win over Sturm Graz 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Sturm Graz at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
On the day, Swarovski Tirol had 46% of the ball to Sturm Graz's 54%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 0.73 to 0.73.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Swarovski Tirol and 2.17 for Sturm Graz.
What was the final score of Swarovski Tirol vs Sturm Graz?
Swarovski Tirol 1-0 Sturm Graz in the Austria - Bundesliga on 14/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Swarovski Tirol vs Sturm Graz?
Before kick-off our model rated an Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Swarovski Tirol 30%, draw 25%, Sturm Graz 45%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.