Swarovski Tirol 1-0 Sturm Graz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 14 Feb 2026

📅14/02/2026 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.8
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
45%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.75
Over 2.5
51%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.76
No
49%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.94
2-3 Goals
42%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
3.83
6+ Goals
10%
16.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.5
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
29.0
1/X
7%
13.35
X/1
9%
6.31
X/2
13%
5.31
X/X
12%
4.35
2/1
5%
33.0
2/2
23%
3.45
2/X
6%
13.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 29.0 — our 10% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
32%
-2.9pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.1pp
45%
Away Win
39%
+6.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
53%
-4.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
47%
+4.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.5pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Swarovski Tirol EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 43%
+8% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -6%
1.35/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.41
+11% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -1%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
279 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 76%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.2
16.8 Crosses 19.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Swarovski Tirol
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Sturm Graz
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.22 xG 1.78
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
281 Passes 302
71% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 26
15 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 2
03.12.2025 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-3 HT 1-0 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol AVU
07.12.2024 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 0-3 HT 0-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
31.08.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 4-2 HT 1-2 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol AVU
25.02.2024 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 0-2 HT 0-2 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
01.10.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-0 HT 1-0 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol AVU
19.03.2023 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 0-2 HT 0-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Swarovski Tirol
1-0
AWAY Sturm Graz
0.73 xG 0.73
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 1
272 Passes 346
71% Pass Accuracy 74%
21 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Swarovski Tirol vs Sturm Graz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Swarovski Tirol nicked a narrow win over Sturm Graz 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Sturm Graz at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Swarovski Tirol had 46% of the ball to Sturm Graz's 54%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 0.73 to 0.73.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Swarovski Tirol and 2.17 for Sturm Graz.

What was the final score of Swarovski Tirol vs Sturm Graz?

Swarovski Tirol 1-0 Sturm Graz in the Austria - Bundesliga on 14/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Swarovski Tirol vs Sturm Graz?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Swarovski Tirol 30%, draw 25%, Sturm Graz 45%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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