Adelaide United vs Macarthur Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Adelaide United v Macarthur — Team-Based Signals
Adelaide United vs Macarthur Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
4-3
HT 2-2
Adelaide United
AVUS
1-0
HT 1-0
Macarthur
AVUS
2-0
HT 1-0
Adelaide United
AVUS
Adelaide United 4-5 Macarthur — Actual Match Statistics
Macarthur nicked a narrow win over Adelaide United 5-4 away from home. It was 3-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 9 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match lean was Adelaide United at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Adelaide United had 52% of the ball to Macarthur's 48%, shots finished 15-8, expected goals 3.04 to 1.55 — on chances, Adelaide United could feel hard done by.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Macarthur led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Adelaide United and 1.67 for Macarthur.
What was the final score of Adelaide United vs Macarthur?
Adelaide United 4-5 Macarthur in the Australia - A-League on 14/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Adelaide United vs Macarthur?
Before kick-off our model rated a Adelaide United win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Adelaide United 45%, draw 23%, Macarthur 31%. The final score 4-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Adelaide United) went the other way.