AC Horsens 2-1 Esbjerg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 14 Mar 2025

📅14/03/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.75
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
24%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.7
No
55%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.62
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.04
6+ Goals
9%
10.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.62 — our 26% vs market 21.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.29
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.6
X/1
20%
4.41
X/2
8%
8.85
X/X
11%
5.34
2/1
10%
22.1
2/2
10%
6.68
2/X
7%
14.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
53%
-1.0pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.4pp
24%
Away Win
23%
+0.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+4.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-4.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
55%
-10.2pp
55%
BTTS No
45%
+10.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AC Horsens EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Esbjerg EU Bookmakers 26%
-1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -1%
2.11/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.93
-26% / +76% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / -22%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
342 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 76%
35.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
24.8 Crosses 11.9
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AC Horsens
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Esbjerg
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.20 xG 1.44
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
295 Passes 279
72% Pass Accuracy 71%
22 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
04.08.2024 Esbjerg Esbjerg 0-1 HT 0-1 AC Horsens AC Horsens DAN1
17.02.2024 AC Horsens AC Horsens 0-0 HT 0-0 Esbjerg Esbjerg HAZ
13.03.2022 AC Horsens AC Horsens 0-0 HT 0-0 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN1
13.08.2021 Esbjerg Esbjerg 0-0 HT 0-0 AC Horsens AC Horsens DAN1
03.07.2020 Esbjerg Esbjerg 1-2 HT 1-1 AC Horsens AC Horsens DAN
16.06.2020 AC Horsens AC Horsens 2-2 HT 1-1 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AC Horsens
2-1
AWAY Esbjerg
1.86 xG 2.44
49% Ball Possession 51%
17 Total Shots 20
6 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 10
243 Passes 257
69% Pass Accuracy 71%
31 Box Touches 32
13 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH AC Horsens vs Esbjerg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AC Horsens nicked a narrow win over Esbjerg 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had AC Horsens as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, AC Horsens had 49% of the ball to Esbjerg's 51%, shots finished 17-20, expected goals 1.86 to 2.44 — the balance of chances actually favoured Esbjerg.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AC Horsens had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for AC Horsens and 0.50 for Esbjerg.

What was the final score of AC Horsens vs Esbjerg?

AC Horsens 2-1 Esbjerg in the Denmark 1st Division on 14/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AC Horsens vs Esbjerg?

Before kick-off our model rated a AC Horsens win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split AC Horsens 52%, draw 24%, Esbjerg 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AC Horsens), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AC Horsens) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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