Stoke City U21 5-3 Derby County U21 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — INGPL2, 14 Mar 2025

📅14/03/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.8
Draw
23%
4.19
Away
33%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
Over 2.5
53%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.43
No
47%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
31%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
16%
X/X
7%
2/1
10%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
52%
-7.9pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.6pp
33%
Away Win
28%
+5.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
66%
-12.4pp
47%
BTTS No
34%
+12.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stoke City U21 EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Derby County U21 EU Bookmakers 31%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +44%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
364 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 9.5
Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stoke City U21
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Derby County U21
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.38 xG 0.54
38% Ball Possession 62%
6 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
215 Passes 387
73% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.03.2024 Derby County U21 Derby County U21 1-2 HT 0-2 Stoke City U21 Stoke City U21 INGPL2-1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stoke City U21
5-3
AWAY Derby County U21
40% Ball Possession 60%
16 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 1
213 Passes 465
70% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Stoke City U21 vs Derby County U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stoke City U21 got the better of Derby County U21 5-3. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Stoke City U21 as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 5-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Stoke City U21 had 40% of the ball to Derby County U21's 60%, shots finished 16-14.

What was the final score of Stoke City U21 vs Derby County U21?

Stoke City U21 5-3 Derby County U21 in the INGPL2 on 14/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stoke City U21 vs Derby County U21?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stoke City U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Stoke City U21 44%, draw 23%, Derby County U21 33%. The final score 5-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Stoke City U21), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Stoke City U21) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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