Derby County U21 1-2 Stoke City U21 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League 2 (League 1), 15 Mar 2024

📅15/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.18
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
32%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
3.17
Over 2.5
55%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.32
No
49%
3.08
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
3%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
42%
+3.2pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.5pp
32%
Away Win
34%
-2.7pp
45%
Under 2.5
28%
+16.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
72%
-16.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
72%
-20.1pp
49%
BTTS No
28%
+20.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derby County U21 EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Stoke City U21 EU Bookmakers 38%
-52% / -52% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.85/0.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.91/1.45
-48% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -7%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
357 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
25.5 Crosses 14.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 4.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derby County U21
1-2
AWAY Stoke City U21
0.54 xG 1.38
62% Ball Possession 38%
10 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 4
387 Passes 215
82% Pass Accuracy 73%
16 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Derby County U21 vs Stoke City U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stoke City U21 nicked a narrow win over Derby County U21 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Derby County U21 at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Derby County U21 had 62% of the ball to Stoke City U21's 38%, shots finished 10-6, expected goals 0.54 to 1.38.

What was the final score of Derby County U21 vs Stoke City U21?

Derby County U21 1-2 Stoke City U21 in the England - Premier League 2 (League 1) on 15/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derby County U21 vs Stoke City U21?

Before kick-off our model rated a Derby County U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Derby County U21 45%, draw 23%, Stoke City U21 32%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Derby County U21) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Derby County U21) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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