Pogon Szczecin 5-2 Cracovia Krakow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 14 Mar 2025

📅14/03/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.8
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
26%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.95
Over 2.5
47%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.37
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.19
6+ Goals
10%
11.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.37 — our 27% vs market 22.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.36
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.15
X/1
19%
4.47
X/2
10%
8.76
X/X
11%
4.95
2/1
7%
23.0
2/2
9%
6.71
2/X
7%
14.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
52%
-3.6pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.4pp
26%
Away Win
23%
+3.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.9pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Cracovia Krakow EU Bookmakers 26%
+1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +16%
1.84/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.17
+11% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +24%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
384 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 76%
29.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
21.6 Crosses 18.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pogon Szczecin
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Cracovia Krakow
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.67 xG 1.48
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
402 Passes 247
83% Pass Accuracy 73%
25 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 2
14.09.2024 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 2-1 HT 1-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
30.03.2024 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 3-1 HT 2-1 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow POL
23.09.2023 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 1-5 HT 0-2 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
08.04.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 3-2 HT 2-1 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow POL
17.09.2022 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 1-1 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
12.03.2022 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 1-1 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pogon Szczecin
5-2
AWAY Cracovia Krakow
2.43 xG 1.50
66% Ball Possession 34%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 0
449 Passes 193
82% Pass Accuracy 66%
35 Box Touches 19
33 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Szczecin cruised past Cracovia Krakow 5-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Pogon Szczecin as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Pogon Szczecin had 66% of the ball to Cracovia Krakow's 34%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 2.43 to 1.50.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pogon Szczecin had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.33 for Cracovia Krakow.

What was the final score of Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?

Pogon Szczecin 5-2 Cracovia Krakow in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 14/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pogon Szczecin win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Pogon Szczecin 48%, draw 26%, Cracovia Krakow 26%. The final score 5-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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