Malaga II 1-2 Xerez — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 14 Mar 2026

📅14/03/2026 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
4.13
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
56%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.54
Over 2.5
40%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.19
No
59%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
7%
X/2
21%
X/X
16%
2/1
4%
2/2
29%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
21%
-2.6pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.5pp
55%
Away Win
52%
+3.2pp
60%
Under 2.5
61%
-0.6pp
40%
Over 2.5
39%
+0.6pp
41%
BTTS Yes
42%
-1.0pp
59%
BTTS No
58%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Malaga II EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Xerez EU Bookmakers 56%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -68% / -68%
0.91/1.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/1.00
-2% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -7%
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
254 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Malaga II
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Xerez
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
52% Ball Possession 48%
4 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 1
14.12.2025 Xerez Xerez 1-0 HT 1-0 Malaga II Malaga II İS4
17.06.2006 Xerez Xerez 4-2 HT 4-1 Malaga II Malaga II İS2
21.01.2006 Malaga II Malaga II 0-0 HT 0-0 Xerez Xerez İS2
29.01.2005 Malaga II Malaga II 0-3 HT 0-1 Xerez Xerez İS2
29.08.2004 Xerez Xerez 1-0 HT 0-0 Malaga II Malaga II İS2
11.04.2004 Xerez Xerez 2-1 HT 1-1 Malaga II Malaga II İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Malaga II
1-2
AWAY Xerez
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 7
5 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Malaga II vs Xerez
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Xerez nicked a narrow win over Malaga II 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Xerez as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Malaga II had 41% of the ball to Xerez's 59%, shots finished 8-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Xerez led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Malaga II and 1.83 for Xerez.

What was the final score of Malaga II vs Xerez?

Malaga II 1-2 Xerez in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 14/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Malaga II vs Xerez?

Before kick-off our model rated an Xerez win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Malaga II 18%, draw 26%, Xerez 55%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Xerez) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Xerez) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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