Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 Paderborn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 14 Mar 2026

Arminia Bielefeld
2-2 HT 1-0
Paderborn
📅14/03/2026 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2025/2026

Arminia Bielefeld vs Paderborn Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.67
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
41%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.03
Over 2.5
46%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.6
No
47%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.7
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
3.08
6+ Goals
10%
10.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.7 — our 30% vs market 20.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.26
1/2
10%
24.8
1/X
5%
12.3
X/1
11%
6.52
X/2
15%
5.42
X/X
15%
4.81
2/1
8%
28.5
2/2
17%
3.2
2/X
8%
12.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
33%
-2.4pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.6pp
41%
Away Win
40%
+0.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
45%
+8.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
55%
-8.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.6pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arminia Bielefeld v Paderborn — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arminia Bielefeld EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Paderborn EU Bookmakers 45%
-3% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +2%
1.58/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/1.19
+13% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +19%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
286 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 78%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.7
24.2 Crosses 16.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4

Arminia Bielefeld vs Paderborn Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arminia Bielefeld
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Paderborn
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.31 xG 1.73
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
278 Passes 363
73% Pass Accuracy 79%
30 Box Touches 25
20 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.10.2025 Paderborn Paderborn 4-3 HT 1-2 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL2
20.05.2023 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 HT 2-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
08.11.2022 Paderborn Paderborn 0-2 HT 0-2 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL2
03.05.2019 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 2-0 HT 1-0 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
30.11.2018 Paderborn Paderborn 2-2 HT 0-0 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL2
21.02.2016 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 1-1 HT 0-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2

Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 Paderborn — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arminia Bielefeld
2-2
AWAY Paderborn
3.46 xG 0.96
40% Ball Possession 60%
26 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 1
183 Passes 325
67% Pass Accuracy 79%
37 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Arminia Bielefeld vs Paderborn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arminia Bielefeld and Paderborn shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Paderborn at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Arminia Bielefeld had 40% of the ball to Paderborn's 60%, shots finished 26-7, expected goals 3.46 to 0.96.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arminia Bielefeld had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.50 for Paderborn.

What was the final score of Arminia Bielefeld vs Paderborn?

Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 Paderborn in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 14/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arminia Bielefeld vs Paderborn?

Before kick-off our model rated an Paderborn win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Arminia Bielefeld 31%, draw 28%, Paderborn 41%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Paderborn), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Paderborn) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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