Hobro IK 1-0 Aalborg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 14 Mar 2026

📅14/03/2026 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.29
Draw
22%
3.35
Away
47%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.91
Over 2.5
52%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.7
No
48%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.27
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.25
6+ Goals
10%
12.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.43
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
23.95
1/X
6%
13.6
X/1
11%
7.42
X/2
18%
4.73
X/X
11%
4.76
2/1
8%
34.0
2/2
18%
2.7
2/X
5%
12.75
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.95 — our 11% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
27%
+3.6pp
22%
Draw
26%
-4.0pp
47%
Away Win
47%
+0.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
-2.7pp
48%
BTTS No
45%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hobro IK EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Aalborg EU Bookmakers 50%
+11% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.17/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.68/1.47
+22% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -31%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
264 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 395 · 79%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.6
16.6 Crosses 22.7
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hobro IK
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Aalborg
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.47 xG 1.59
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 8
334 Passes 436
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Box Touches 29
18 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 2
01.08.2025 Aalborg Aalborg 1-1 HT 0-1 Hobro IK Hobro IK DAN1
29.06.2024 Hobro IK Hobro IK 1-1 HT 1-0 Aalborg Aalborg HAZ
05.05.2024 Aalborg Aalborg 2-3 HT 2-2 Hobro IK Hobro IK DAN1
12.04.2024 Hobro IK Hobro IK 2-1 HT 0-0 Aalborg Aalborg DAN1
26.11.2023 Aalborg Aalborg 1-2 HT 0-0 Hobro IK Hobro IK DAN1
24.08.2023 Hobro IK Hobro IK 1-2 HT 1-1 Aalborg Aalborg DAN1
POST-MATCH Hobro IK vs Aalborg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hobro IK nicked a narrow win over Aalborg 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Aalborg at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hobro IK had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Hobro IK and 1.33 for Aalborg.

What was the final score of Hobro IK vs Aalborg?

Hobro IK 1-0 Aalborg in the Denmark 1st Division on 14/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hobro IK vs Aalborg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aalborg win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Hobro IK 31%, draw 22%, Aalborg 47%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Aalborg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
DAN1 More Denmark 1st Division
14 Mar 2026
16:00 Aarhus Fremad vs AC Horsens Analysis →