KaPa 1-2 KTP Kotka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Ykköscup, 14 Mar 2026

📅14/03/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.69
Draw
19%
3.72
Away
54%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.15
Over 2.5
57%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.63
No
45%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.92
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
25%
2.87
6+ Goals
9%
8.81
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
3%
1/X
3%
X/1
14%
X/2
32%
X/X
10%
2/1
4%
2/2
19%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
24%
+3.4pp
19%
Draw
23%
-4.1pp
54%
Away Win
53%
+0.7pp
43%
Under 2.5
43%
-0.1pp
57%
Over 2.5
57%
+0.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
57%
-2.5pp
45%
BTTS No
43%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME KaPa EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY KTP Kotka EU Bookmakers 57%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +35% / +35%
0.67/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/1.00
-28% / +61% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +62% / -47%
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
275 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 457 · 85%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.2 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME KaPa
0W-0D-3L
AWAY KTP Kotka
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 4.67
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 10
2 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.09.2024 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 7-2 HT 3-0 KaPa KaPa FİN2
27.07.2024 KaPa KaPa 1-5 HT 0-4 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN2
27.05.2024 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 2-1 HT 1-1 KaPa KaPa FİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME KaPa
1-2
AWAY KTP Kotka
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH KaPa vs KTP Kotka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

KTP Kotka squeezed past KaPa 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had KTP Kotka as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, KaPa had 52% of the ball to KTP Kotka's 48%, shots finished 11-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, KTP Kotka led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for KaPa and 4.67 for KTP Kotka.

What was the final score of KaPa vs KTP Kotka?

KaPa 1-2 KTP Kotka in the Finland - Ykköscup on 14/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for KaPa vs KTP Kotka?

Before kick-off our model rated an KTP Kotka win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split KaPa 27%, draw 19%, KTP Kotka 54%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (KTP Kotka), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (KTP Kotka) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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