Athletic Bilbao 1-1 Villarreal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 14 Apr 2024

Athletic Bilbao
1-1 HT 0-0
Villarreal
📅14/04/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Athletic Bilbao vs Villarreal Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.61
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
25%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.1
Over 2.5
53%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.04
2-3 Goals
37%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
3.09
6+ Goals
13%
9.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.0
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
15.4
X/1
16%
3.89
X/2
7%
10.7
X/X
12%
5.76
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
21.85
2/2
14%
8.04
2/X
8%
16.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.85 — our 10% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
58%
-8.2pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.9pp
25%
Away Win
19%
+6.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.0pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Athletic Bilbao v Villarreal — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Athletic Bilbao EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Villarreal EU Bookmakers 22%
-7% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +8%
1.70/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.61
-8% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +7%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
395 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 78%
28.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
26.0 Crosses 13.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.7

Athletic Bilbao vs Villarreal Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Athletic Bilbao
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Villarreal
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.38 xG 1.25
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
319 Passes 428
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
27 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
05.11.2023 Villarreal Villarreal 2-3 HT 0-3 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
13.05.2023 Villarreal Villarreal 5-1 HT 2-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
30.10.2022 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 1-0 HT 0-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
09.04.2022 Villarreal Villarreal 1-1 HT 0-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
23.10.2021 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 2-1 HT 1-1 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
21.02.2021 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 1-1 HT 1-1 Villarreal Villarreal İS1

Athletic Bilbao 1-1 Villarreal — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Athletic Bilbao
1-1
AWAY Villarreal
0.65 xG 2.10
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 2
416 Passes 370
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
25 Box Touches 25
25 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Athletic Bilbao vs Villarreal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Athletic Bilbao and Villarreal couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Athletic Bilbao at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Athletic Bilbao had 52% of the ball to Villarreal's 48%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 0.65 to 2.10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Athletic Bilbao had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Athletic Bilbao and 1.67 for Villarreal.

What was the final score of Athletic Bilbao vs Villarreal?

Athletic Bilbao 1-1 Villarreal in the Spain - Primera Liga on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Athletic Bilbao vs Villarreal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Athletic Bilbao win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Athletic Bilbao 50%, draw 25%, Villarreal 25%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) ✗ Over 2.5
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