Real Sociedad 2-2 Almeria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 14 Apr 2024

Real Sociedad
2-2 HT 1-1
Almeria
📅14/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Real Sociedad vs Almeria Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.33
Draw
22%
4.62
Away
23%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.07
Over 2.5
52%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.06
No
56%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.98
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.12
6+ Goals
11%
10.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.98 — our 26% vs market 20.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.56
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
22.3
X/1
16%
3.37
X/2
7%
18.45
X/X
8%
6.91
2/1
8%
24.0
2/2
12%
15.35
2/X
5%
23.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
71%
-16.0pp
22%
Draw
18%
+4.0pp
23%
Away Win
11%
+12.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.5pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Real Sociedad v Almeria — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Sociedad EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Almeria EU Bookmakers 14%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -12%
1.77/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.95
-20% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -13%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
383 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 70%
26.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
18.9 Crosses 12.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5

Real Sociedad vs Almeria Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Sociedad
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Almeria
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.99 xG 0.37
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
347 Passes 216
80% Pass Accuracy 70%
29 Box Touches 8
16 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.11.2023 Almeria Almeria 1-3 HT 0-0 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad İS1
23.05.2023 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 1-0 HT 1-0 Almeria Almeria İS1
08.01.2023 Almeria Almeria 0-2 HT 0-0 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad İS1
13.02.2015 Almeria Almeria 2-2 HT 2-1 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad İS1
21.09.2014 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 1-2 HT 0-1 Almeria Almeria İS1
24.03.2014 Almeria Almeria 4-3 HT 1-1 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad İS1

Real Sociedad 2-2 Almeria — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Sociedad
2-2
AWAY Almeria
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 1
326 Passes 350
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
POST-MATCH Real Sociedad vs Almeria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Sociedad and Almeria shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Real Sociedad at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Real Sociedad had 50% of the ball to Almeria's 50%, shots finished 17-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Sociedad had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Real Sociedad and 1.50 for Almeria.

What was the final score of Real Sociedad vs Almeria?

Real Sociedad 2-2 Almeria in the Spain - Primera Liga on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Sociedad vs Almeria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Sociedad win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Real Sociedad 55%, draw 22%, Almeria 23%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Real Sociedad), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Real Sociedad) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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