Burgos 2-1 Racing Santander — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 14 Apr 2024

Burgos
2-1 HT 1-1
Racing Santander
📅14/04/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Spain - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Burgos vs Racing Santander Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
28%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.86
Over 2.5
49%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.27
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.6
6+ Goals
10%
14.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.27 — our 28% vs market 25.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.09
1/2
8%
33.5
1/X
7%
12.95
X/1
20%
4.87
X/2
10%
6.47
X/X
15%
4.53
2/1
8%
26.5
2/2
10%
4.62
2/X
6%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
43%
+1.5pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.2pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-1.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
50%
+0.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
50%
-0.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.4pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Burgos v Racing Santander — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burgos EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Racing Santander EU Bookmakers 33%
+19% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +11%
1.30/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.18
+18% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +48% / -9%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
295 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 79%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
17.8 Crosses 15.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.9

Burgos vs Racing Santander Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burgos
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Racing Santander
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.82 xG 1.62
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
253 Passes 377
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.10.2023 Racing Santander Racing Santander 3-0 HT 1-0 Burgos Burgos İS2
01.04.2023 Burgos Burgos 2-1 HT 1-0 Racing Santander Racing Santander İS2
20.11.2022 Racing Santander Racing Santander 0-1 HT 0-0 Burgos Burgos İS2
30.07.2022 Racing Santander Racing Santander 1-2 HT 1-1 Burgos Burgos HAZ
08.08.2015 Burgos Burgos 1-0 HT 1-0 Racing Santander Racing Santander HAZ
06.02.2002 Burgos Burgos 0-0 HT 0-0 Racing Santander Racing Santander İS2

Burgos 2-1 Racing Santander — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burgos
2-1
AWAY Racing Santander
1.54 xG 0.51
41% Ball Possession 59%
15 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 2
223 Passes 353
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Burgos vs Racing Santander
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burgos nicked a narrow win over Racing Santander 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Burgos as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Burgos had 41% of the ball to Racing Santander's 59%, shots finished 15-5, expected goals 1.54 to 0.51.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Burgos had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Burgos and 0.83 for Racing Santander.

What was the final score of Burgos vs Racing Santander?

Burgos 2-1 Racing Santander in the Spain - 2nd Division on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burgos vs Racing Santander?

Before kick-off our model rated a Burgos win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Burgos 45%, draw 27%, Racing Santander 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Burgos) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Burgos) ✗ Under 2.5
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