Illescas 1-2 Ursaria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
31%
2.88
Away
27%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.38
Over 2.5
39%
2.89
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.33
No
56%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
12%
X/X
18%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
+0.1pp
31%
Draw
31%
+0.2pp
27%
Away Win
27%
-0.2pp
61%
Under 2.5
69%
-7.5pp
39%
Over 2.5
31%
+7.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
39%
+5.1pp
56%
BTTS No
61%
-5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Illescas EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Ursaria EU Bookmakers 31%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.63/0.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.58/1.29
+37% / +83% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / -8%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
307 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Illescas
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Ursaria
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
58% Ball Possession 42%
8 Total Shots 2
2 Shots on Target 0
3 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 5
03.12.2023 Ursaria Ursaria 0-1 HT 0-0 Illescas İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Illescas
1-2
AWAY Ursaria
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
6 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Illescas vs Ursaria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ursaria edged past Illescas 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Illescas at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Illescas had 44% of the ball to Ursaria's 56%, shots finished 9-10.

What was the final score of Illescas vs Ursaria?

Illescas 1-2 Ursaria in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Illescas vs Ursaria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Illescas win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Illescas 42%, draw 31%, Ursaria 27%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Illescas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İS4 More Spain - 2nd Division RFEF
14 Apr 2024
12:00 Formentera vs Sant Andreu Analysis →
12:30 Getafe II vs SS Reyes Analysis →
13:00 Zaragoza II vs San Juan Analysis →
13:00 Valencia II vs Torrent Analysis →
13:00 Numancia vs UD San Fernando Analysis →
13:00 Deportivo Alaves II vs Arenas de Getxo Analysis →