Lleida Esportiu 3-1 Penya Independent — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.47
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
18%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.13
No
58%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
5%
1/X
12%
X/1
18%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
5%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
64%
-6.2pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.7pp
18%
Away Win
14%
+3.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.6pp
42%
BTTS Yes
43%
-0.4pp
58%
BTTS No
57%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lleida Esportiu EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Penya Independent EU Bookmakers 17%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -1%
1.89/0.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/1.35
+9% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +10%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
293 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 242 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lleida Esportiu
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Penya Independent
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
60% Ball Possession 40%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
0 Yellow Cards 1
03.12.2023 Penya Independent 0-1 HT 0-0 Lleida Esportiu Lleida Esportiu İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lleida Esportiu
3-1
AWAY Penya Independent
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 6
13 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 0
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lleida Esportiu vs Penya Independent
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lleida Esportiu saw off Penya Independent 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lleida Esportiu as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lleida Esportiu had 60% of the ball to Penya Independent's 40%, shots finished 18-6.

What was the final score of Lleida Esportiu vs Penya Independent?

Lleida Esportiu 3-1 Penya Independent in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lleida Esportiu vs Penya Independent?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lleida Esportiu win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Lleida Esportiu 57%, draw 25%, Penya Independent 18%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lleida Esportiu) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lleida Esportiu) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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