Motagua 5-1 Juticalpa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 14 Apr 2025

📅14/04/2025 · 🕒02:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.33
Draw
22%
4.62
Away
17%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.03
Over 2.5
55%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.09
No
56%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
71%
-10.0pp
22%
Draw
18%
+3.5pp
18%
Away Win
11%
+6.5pp
45%
Under 2.5
45%
+0.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
55%
-0.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.3pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motagua EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Juticalpa EU Bookmakers 14%
-2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +9%
2.50/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.48/2.01
+17% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -44% / +6%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
336 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motagua
3W-0D-0L
AWAY Juticalpa
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
13.02.2025 Juticalpa Juticalpa 0-3 HT 0-1 Motagua Motagua HON
25.11.2024 Juticalpa Juticalpa 1-3 HT 1-0 Motagua Motagua HON
19.09.2024 Motagua Motagua 3-0 HT 1-0 Juticalpa Juticalpa HON
POST-MATCH Motagua vs Juticalpa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motagua swept aside Juticalpa 5-1. Half-time: 1-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Motagua as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (55%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Motagua had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Motagua and 0.33 for Juticalpa.

What was the final score of Motagua vs Juticalpa?

Motagua 5-1 Juticalpa in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 14/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motagua vs Juticalpa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motagua win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Motagua 61%, draw 22%, Juticalpa 18%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Motagua), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Motagua) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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