Bologna 1-0 Milan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 14 May 2025

Bologna
1-0 HT 0-0
Milan
📅14/05/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Italy - Cup – 2024/2025

Bologna vs Milan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.94
Draw
27%
2.94
Away
34%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
1.64
Over
52%
2.05
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
56%
1.88
No
44%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1
27%
2.61
2-3
44%
1.76
4-5
19%
4.32
6+
10%
22.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.8
1/2
9%
31.0
1/X
7%
13.3
X/1
11%
6.46
X/2
9%
5.28
X/X
13%
3.92
2/1 ✗
13%
35.0
2/2
16%
3.49
2/X
6%
12.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 35.0 — our 13% vs market 1.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Bologna v Milan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bologna The Market 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Milan The Market 43%
-44% / -44% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +23%
1.00/3.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.94/0.16
-24% / -56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +63% / +150%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
339 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.0
– Crosses 19.0
– Yellow Cards 2.0

Bologna vs Milan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bologna
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Milan
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.13 xG 1.66
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 5
399 Passes 351
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 24
11 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
09.05.2025 Milan Milan 3-1 HT 0-0 Bologna Bologna İTA
27.02.2025 Bologna Bologna 2-1 HT 0-1 Milan Milan İTA
27.01.2024 Milan Milan 2-2 HT 1-1 Bologna Bologna İTA
21.08.2023 Bologna Bologna 0-2 HT 0-2 Milan Milan İTA
15.04.2023 Bologna Bologna 1-1 HT 1-1 Milan Milan İTA
27.08.2022 Milan Milan 2-0 HT 1-0 Bologna Bologna İTA

Bologna 1-0 Milan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bologna
1-0
AWAY Milan
0.93 xG 1.49
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
375 Passes 424
88% Pass Accuracy 86%
18 Box Touches 17
11 Crosses 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Bologna vs Milan
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Bologna squeezed past Milan 1-0. Level at 0-0 at half-time, the winner was decided in the second half.

Our pre-match split (39% / 27% / 34%) promised a tight game; Bologna found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

Under the surface, Milan saw more of the ball, 54% to 46%, shots finished 11-7, expected goals 0.93 to 1.49 — on chances, Milan could feel hard done by.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milan led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.00 a game for Bologna against 1.83 for Milan.

Bologna vs Milan Result & Final Score

Bologna 1-0 Milan in the Italy - Cup on 14/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Bologna vs Milan Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Bologna win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Bologna 39%, draw 27%, Milan 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bologna) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bologna) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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