Stjarnan 3-2 Valur — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iceland - Urvalsdeild, 14 Jun 2025

📅14/06/2025 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
3.08
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
35%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
Over 2.5
62%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.38
No
41%
2.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
10%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
29%
+9.1pp
27%
Draw
23%
+4.3pp
35%
Away Win
48%
-13.4pp
59%
BTTS Yes
68%
-9.7pp
41%
BTTS No
32%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stjarnan EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Valur EU Bookmakers 52%
+0% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -12%
1.41/2.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.93/1.61
-8% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -13%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
236 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 382 · 81%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.7
13.3 Crosses 20.5
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stjarnan
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Valur
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.43 xG 1.66
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 8
361 Passes 324
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
30 Box Touches 33
15 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 3
23.09.2024 Valur Valur 2-2 HT 0-2 Stjarnan Stjarnan İZL
30.05.2024 Valur Valur 5-1 HT 2-0 Stjarnan Stjarnan İZL
19.04.2024 Stjarnan Stjarnan 1-0 HT 1-0 Valur Valur İZL
17.09.2023 Valur Valur 2-0 HT 1-0 Stjarnan Stjarnan İZL
17.07.2023 Stjarnan Stjarnan 2-0 HT 1-0 Valur Valur İZL
29.04.2023 Valur Valur 3-2 HT 2-0 Stjarnan Stjarnan İZL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stjarnan
3-2
AWAY Valur
2.24 xG 1.80
47% Ball Possession 53%
17 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
13 Corners 3
297 Passes 354
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
39 Box Touches 24
25 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Stjarnan vs Valur
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stjarnan squeezed past Valur 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; Stjarnan found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Stjarnan had 47% of the ball to Valur's 53%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 2.24 to 1.80.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Valur led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Stjarnan and 2.00 for Valur.

What was the final score of Stjarnan vs Valur?

Stjarnan 3-2 Valur in the Iceland - Urvalsdeild on 14/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stjarnan vs Valur?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stjarnan win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Stjarnan 38%, draw 27%, Valur 35%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Stjarnan), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Stjarnan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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