Valur 2-2 Stjarnan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iceland - Urvalsdeild, 23 Sep 2024

Valur
2-2 HT 0-2
Stjarnan
📅23/09/2024 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Iceland - Urvalsdeild – 2024

Valur vs Stjarnan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.53
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
3.14
Over 2.5
60%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.41
No
47%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
7.89
2-3 Goals
39%
2.3
4-5 Goals
27%
2.4
6+ Goals
17%
4.28
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
5%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
61%
-7.0pp
23%
Draw
20%
+3.2pp
23%
Away Win
19%
+3.8pp
40%
Under 2.5
28%
+12.1pp
60%
Over 2.5
72%
-12.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
67%
-13.6pp
47%
BTTS No
33%
+13.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Valur v Stjarnan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valur EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Stjarnan EU Bookmakers 22%
+3% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +2%
1.91/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.93
+6% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +16%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
419 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 74%
32.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.3
22.3 Crosses 15.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.3

Valur vs Stjarnan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valur
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Stjarnan
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.59 xG 1.37
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
326 Passes 363
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
32 Box Touches 33
19 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.05.2024 Valur Valur 5-1 HT 2-0 Stjarnan Stjarnan İZL
19.04.2024 Stjarnan Stjarnan 1-0 HT 1-0 Valur Valur İZL
17.09.2023 Valur Valur 2-0 HT 1-0 Stjarnan Stjarnan İZL
17.07.2023 Stjarnan Stjarnan 2-0 HT 1-0 Valur Valur İZL
29.04.2023 Valur Valur 3-2 HT 2-0 Stjarnan Stjarnan İZL
16.10.2022 Valur Valur 3-0 HT 1-0 Stjarnan Stjarnan İZL

Valur 2-2 Stjarnan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valur
2-2
AWAY Stjarnan
2.01 xG 1.69
49% Ball Possession 51%
26 Total Shots 15
10 Shots on Target 6
14 Corners 6
315 Passes 350
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
37 Box Touches 20
29 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Valur vs Stjarnan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valur and Stjarnan shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Valur at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%) came in.

On the day, Valur had 49% of the ball to Stjarnan's 51%, shots finished 26-15, expected goals 2.01 to 1.69.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Valur had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Valur and 1.00 for Stjarnan.

What was the final score of Valur vs Stjarnan?

Valur 2-2 Stjarnan in the Iceland - Urvalsdeild on 23/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valur vs Stjarnan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valur win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Valur 54%, draw 23%, Stjarnan 23%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Valur) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Valur) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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